Bulgaria’s Climate Crisis Linked to Thousands of Deaths, €1B in Losses

Jerusalem, 24 September, 2026 (TPS-IL) -- Sofia (BTA) – Bulgaria is showing low effectiveness in climate change actions, which contribute to thousands of deaths and lead to direct economic losses from droughts and heat waves, estimated at over 1 billion euros in 2025 – approximately 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) or about 140 euros per capita.

These conclusions are contained in the new report “Research on Vulnerabilities to and Consequences of Climate Change in Bulgaria: Joint National Assessment”, coordinated by the Net-Zero Lab at the Faculty of Economics of Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” and prepared by an interdisciplinary team of leading Bulgarian researchers from various Bulgarian scientific insitutions.

Heat waves, droughts and flash floods in Bulgaria are no longer isolated anomalies, but a manifestation of a systemic transformation of the country’s climate regime, scientists warn in the report obtained by BTA .

Bulgaria ranks 50th out of 64 countries in terms of effectiveness of actions against climate change according to the CCPI index for 2025. Our country performs poorly in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, very poorly in climate policy and energy consumption, and average in the use of renewable energy.

The country is warming faster than the global average.

Located in the climate “hot spot” of Southeast Europe, Bulgaria reports about 0.8 degrees Celsius higher average annual temperature in the period 1991–2020 compared to 1961–1990, with warming being most pronounced in Northern Bulgaria and in summer. The number of hot days and nights is expected to increase from about 10–20 today to 50–60 by the end of the century, regardless of the scenario. In a high-emissions scenario, the average annual temperature for the country reaches about 14.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century – a value that is currently exceptional even for the warmest southern regions. In practice, this means that the climate of all of Bulgaria will “move” several hundred kilometers south, the scientific team emphasizes.

Annual precipitation amounts remain relatively stable, but behind them lies a restructuring of the regime itself: less light and moderate rain and more torrential and potentially dangerous precipitation. The frequency of extreme precipitation on the Black Sea coast and in Eastern Bulgaria has increased by 60–75 percent since 1991. A new seasonal pattern is forming – summer drought, combined with autumn precipitation concentration, which is the basis for the increasing frequency of flash floods. The events in Karlovsko (2022), Tsarevo (2023 and 2025) and Elenite (2025) are empirical confirmation of the model predictions, scientists point out.

Heatwaves are a leading and underestimated cause of excess mortality.

Bulgaria is among the countries in Europe most severely affected by heat waves. In 2023, they were associated with 1,670 deaths (229 per million people – second in Europe in intensity), and in 2024 – with 3,414 deaths. Heat-related mortality in people over 65 has increased by over 150 percent compared to the period 1990–2000. Women and people over 80 years of age are disproportionately affected.

Cities amplify these risks. Summer overheating in Sofia, with an average intensity of 2.5 degrees Celsius above background temperatures, is directly responsible for about 95 additional deaths per season, and 77 percent of residents do not have adequate access to green spaces with tree cover of just over 10 percent. According to the World Health Organization, with a tree cover of 30 percent, summer mortality could be reduced by about 40 percent, experts note.

Under a high-emissions scenario, heat-related deaths could rise to 3,463 per year between 2071 and 2099, up from around 1,150 today. Limiting emissions would keep this number to around 1,742.

The findings project losses of 3.5 percent of Bulgaria’s gross domestic product due to climate change

Climate change is having an increasingly tangible economic dimension for Bulgaria. It manifests itself both through direct damage from extreme weather events – droughts, heat waves, floods and fires – and through longer-term impacts on productivity, public finances, infrastructure, energy and household well-being.

According to the European Environment Agency, in the absence of further adaptation, the country could lose between 1 percent in an optimistic scenario and 3.5 percent in a pessimistic scenario of its real GDP by 2050 due to climate change. At the same time, insurance coverage remains below 50 percent for all climate risks despite increasing losses over the past two decades, and independent estimates indicate household insurance coverage of only around 8 percent.

Agriculture, forests and water are under increasing pressure.

Forecast models expect the number of days with drought to increase after 2037 from 50-60 to 70-80 and more, with the most severely affected regions of Plovdiv, Yambol, Sandanski and Ruse. In 4 Dobrudja – the “breadbasket of Bulgaria”, the vulnerability stems not so much from linear warming as from the sharply increasing interannual variability and the weak “winter recharge” of soil moisture.

In forestry, the annual growth may decrease by up to 3.5 million cubic meters – equivalent to 42 percent of the annual yield, and over 60 percent of the forest habitats in the Natura 2000 network are already in an unfavorable-unsatisfactory condition. The buffer zones in Northeastern Bulgaria are degrading due to drought, which further worsens their protective function.

The main conclusion of the report is that Bulgaria has formally harmonized its climate policies with the European frameworks, but is experiencing serious difficulties in their practical implementation. The main deficiencies are the short-term vision, political inconsistency, weak administrative capacity and dependence on project and European funding, the experts emphasize. Separately, the lack of a national damage register, the reactive financing model and the weak integration of climate risks into the fiscal framework are taken into account – an issue of particular importance after Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone on January 1, 2026.