Low Danube Levels Could Hit Bulgaria’s Transport, Agriculture and Energy
Jerusalem, 25 August, 2026 (TPS-IL) -- Sofia (BTA) – If the low levels of the Danube River are maintained only until the autumn of 2026, the effect on the Bulgarian gross domestic product (GDP) will be limited, but noticeable in transport, agriculture and energy, according to an analysis by Coface Bulgaria, obtained by BTA today. The low levels of the Rhine and Danube rivers create risks for the economies in Europe.
“If the low levels persist only until the fall of 2026, the effect on Bulgarian GDP will likely be limited, but tangible in transport, agriculture and energy. However, if similar conditions are repeated annually, the Danube could turn from a competitive advantage into a structural economic and trade risk for Northern Bulgaria and the entire national economy,” Plamen Dimitrov, manager of Coface Bulgaria, said in a statement.
Coface cited data from the Bulgarian Executive Agency “Research and Maintenance of the Danube River,” according to which in August 2026, the levels on the Bulgarian section remain critically low, with restrictions on the draft of ships introduced along the entire course, and vessels are waiting to pass through the most critical sections around Belene and Batin. This leads to difficulties for export and import through the Danube ports (Ruse, Lom, Vidin, Svishtov) due to the lower carrying capacity of the ships, the company points out and adds that the main sectors in Bulgaria that benefit from cheap river transport are agricultural production, and more specifically – grain, fertilizers, construction and metallurgy.
Coface commented that due to the restrictions at the Paks NPP (Hungary) and the Cherna Voda NPP (Romania), the region is forced to use more expensive sources of electricity and more imports. The price pressure is being transferred to neighboring markets, including Bulgaria. So far, the country is in a better position because the Kozloduy NPP continues to operate thanks to a specially built water channel for cooling, but despite this, prices on regional exchanges are rising. According to the company, Bulgaria’s electricity exports are also expected to increase and part of the load from the regional shortage will continue to be transferred to the Bulgarian system.
The authors of the study focused on the effects of record low water levels in the Rhine and Danube rivers, noting that this leads to disruptions in transport and energy supply, which has a negative impact on the European economy. Low water levels are likely to persist, with risks remaining high, according to forecasts by Coface Bulgaria.
The company said that water levels in both rivers are not expected to rise significantly in the short term. On the Danube, levels have recovered somewhat from historic lows recorded earlier this month in Hungary, but continue to fall in the lower reaches of the basin, especially in Romania. According to the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management in Romania, water levels should remain almost unchanged at least until today, which is the forecast horizon. In the coming weeks, government measures to raise water levels in the area around nuclear power plants by immersing barges or changing the river flow will bring some relief.
At present, the Rhine’s water levels are still falling. Furthermore, the Rhine usually goes through a seasonal low-water period between September and November, which suggests that the challenges could continue for several months. In the longer term, with decreasing snow cover and the continued shrinking of glaciers, as well as increasingly frequent heat waves, low water periods are likely to become more frequent and severe, Coface predicted.
