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IDF Spokesperson/TPS-IL on 12 November, 2024
With Unresolved Issues, Will Emerging Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal Stand?
Jerusalem, 12 November, 2024 (TPS-IL) -- Discussions of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon appear to be gaining traction, but unresolved issues raise questions cast doubt on whether an agreement will take hold.
Sources in Israel’s political echelon told The Press Service of Israel that negotiations are advancing on a deal that would establish a 60-day ceasefire, and include a withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon.
Implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which prohibits Hezbollah from operating south of the Litani River, would begin. The Lebanese Armed Forces would be deployed to southern Lebanon, including along the Israeli border, and take responsibility for dismantling Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), potentially with a revised mandate and composition, would oversee the process.
The ceasefire framework has garnered support from key international players, including the United States and Russia, which are expected to provide guarantees for the agreement. Syria has also signaled its willingness to halt the transfer of weapons into Lebanon.
Unresolved Issues
Despite this progress, key details remain unresolved.
Hezbollah is not a party to the negotiations, and the Iran-backed terror group might declare that they are not bound by the ceasefire. Without Hezbollah’s backing of the agreement, it is an open question whether the Lebanese Armed Forces are prepared to move against Hezbollah.
Moreover, Israel’s demand for effective mechanisms to prevent Hezbollah from rearming has yet to be fully addressed. Reports from the Saudi Al Hadath channel suggest that Hezbollah may agree to relocate its forces north of the Litani River and halt rearming activities during the ceasefire period, anticipated to last five weeks. However, it remains unclear how these commitments would be enforced.
Within Lebanon, there are concerns that Hezbollah moving north of the Litani will exacerbate ethnic tensions in northern Lebanon’s Christian and Sunni areas.
UNIFIL is tasked with monitoring peace between Israel and Lebanon. It was originally established in 1978 to confirm Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon. Israeli officials have been critical of the peacekeepers for failing to stop Hezbollah, which has fired thousands of rockets at Israel since October 7.
The “Blue Line” demarcating the 120 km-long Israel-Lebanone border was created in 2000 by UN cartographers to verify Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, which the UN Security Council later certified as complete.
After the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Hezbollah began launching rockets and launching drones at northern Israel communities daily. More than 68,000 residents of northern Israel are displaced from their homes. Hezbollah leaders have repeatedly said they would continue the attacks to prevent Israelis from returning to their homes.
At least 1,200 people were killed, and 252 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on October 7. Of the 97 remaining hostages, more than 30 have been declared dead. Hamas has also been holding captive two Israeli civilians since 2014 and 2015, and the bodies of two soldiers killed in 2014.
