Will the Iran Ceasefire Shift the Balance in Gaza?

Jerusalem, 26 June, 2025 (TPS-IL) -- While Israel won a clear victory over Iran during 12 days of airstrikes, analysts remain divided on whether this will create meaningful advantages in Gaza, where Hamas continues to hold hostages and steal humanitarian aid.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Danny Van-Buren, head of the “Called to the Flag,” civic movement and a fellow at the Israeli Center for Grand Strategy, says the quieting of the Iranian front is unlikely to have immediate military consequences in Gaza. “Hamas is already a dismantled organization,” he told The Press Service of Israel. “What remains are small terrorist cells.” However, he argued that cutting off Iran — Hamas’ primary patron for weapons, money, and ideological support — will further isolate Hamas and weaken its hold on Gaza.

This, Van-Buren said, should clear a path for Israel to intensify operations, including hostage rescue attempts.

“There’s no substitute for a proactive approach and using full strength when already engaged in conflict,” he told TPS-IL. “The more intense the fighting, the quicker it ends.” He added that U.S.-Israel military coordination during the Iran campaign was unprecedented, potentially opening doors for closer cooperation, including on intelligence and rescue efforts in Gaza.

But that optimism was not shared by Dr. Ronni Shaked, a researcher at Hebrew University’s Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace. Shaked flatly dismissed the idea that the Iran campaign will influence the war in Gaza.

“There is no connection,” he insisted to TPS-IL. “Hamas is broken. The only strong cards they still hold are the hostages.”

Shaked said Israel’s and Hamas’ basic policies on hostages have not budged in the 629 days since the October 7 attack. Israel is willing to negotiate a ceasefire and prisoner exchange for civilians but not for soldiers. And Hamas won’t give up the captive soldiers.

“That’s their strongest card,” he explained.

The war with Hamas, Shaked argued, has devolved into a conflict with the broader Palestinian population rooted in the narrative of a “national struggle” against Israel.

“Even if Hamas disappears, there will be new forces of resistance,” he told TPS-IL. “We’ve turned Gaza into dust. What do you expect the people to do? Raise their hands and surrender?”

Strategic Opportunties

Dr. Eyal Pinko, a senior researcher at Bar-Ilan University and fellow at its Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, stressed that while Iran and its proxies “will need months to rebuild,” Tehran views the ceasefire as a pause, not a conclusion.

“Iran is still operating Hezbollah, Shiite militias, and Hamas. They’re already working to rebuild their networks,” he said.

But Pinko also sees potential diplomatic momentum emerging, particularly involving U.S. President Donald Trump.

“Trump is sending clear signals — Hamas must release the hostages or face consequences,” he told TPS-IL. “Trump never intended for full-scale war. His goal was to send a strong message — the metaphorical 5-kilogram hammer — to show that no one messes with the U.S. At the same time, Trump sees Iran as a future economic partner — a major oil country, a huge population, and European countries have long wanted to do business there. Sanctions have hurt Iran badly, but there’s still huge economic potential.”

Pinko also noted efforts to rekindle normalization initiatives between Israel and the Gulf states, possibly centered around economic cooperation and energy infrastructure.

“We’re seeing the beginning of a broader regional shift,” said Pinko.

But that shift, according to Shaked, will be blocked by the unresolved Palestinian issue. “Without a solution, we will never truly integrate into the Sunni Arab world,” he insisted. According to him, Egypt, not the Gulf states, holds the key to both Gaza and hostage negotiations.

“We treat Egypt like a side player when they are the only ones who really understand Gaza, Hamas, and the clans. They know how to talk to them — unlike the Gulf states, who have no connection,” Pinko argued.

As Van-Buren sees it, the defeat of Hamas and the recovery of the hostages are still within reach militarily and diplomatically. However, he warned, “We must not fall into hubris and say, ‘We destroyed Iran, we won.’ The regime is still there. Only regime change can stop Iran’s global export of terror.”

Israel launched preemptive strikes against Iranian nuclear sites on June 13, citing intelligence that Tehran had reached “a point of no return” in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. According to Israeli defense officials, Iran has developed the capacity to rapidly enrich uranium and assemble nuclear bombs, with sufficient fissile material for up to 15 weapons.

Israeli intelligence also exposed a covert program to complete all components of a nuclear device. The strikes marked a dramatic escalation in what officials describe as a broader Iranian strategy combining nuclear development, missile proliferation, and proxy warfare aimed at Israel’s destruction.

A U.S.-brokered ceasefire went into effect on Tuesday. During 12 days of fighting, Iranian missile strikes killed 28 Israelis and injured over 3,000.

At least 1,180 people were killed, and 252 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on October 7. Of the 50 remaining hostages, around 30 are believed to be dead.